OpenAI's ambitious plan to pour more than $1 trillion into AI infrastructure is facing a sobering reality check: revenue from its flagship product, ChatGPT, is stagnating in Europe, according to a Deutsche Bank Research Institute analysis published Tuesday. The report, first highlighted by Fortune, indicates that European spending on ChatGPT subscriptions has plateaued since May, a trend that could signal a broader inflection point for an industry already under scrutiny for its sky-high capital expenditures.
The stagnation comes despite OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's recent boast that 800 million people use the chatbot weekly. However, as the Financial Times reported, only about five percent of those users—roughly 40 million—pay for a subscription. This thin conversion rate underscores the challenge OpenAI faces in turning massive user engagement into sustainable revenue.
Deutsche Bank's analysis shows that the value of ChatGPT subscriptions in major European markets has flatlined over the past four months, following a surge in early 2023. While Europeans still spend more on ChatGPT than on Disney Plus, the growth trajectory has cooled. At its current annual growth rate, ChatGPT could overtake Spotify by mid-2027 and Netflix by early 2028—but only if it can maintain that pace, which the recent data suggests is unlikely.
This plateau is a critical warning sign for OpenAI, which has repeatedly promised that additional computing power from vast data centers will translate into higher revenue. The company has signed major contracts with AI chipmakers Nvidia and AMD, committing to deliver 26 gigawatts of computing capacity—nearly the electricity needed to power all of New York State during peak demand. Yet with its primary revenue stream showing signs of fatigue, the company may need to rethink its strategy.
Exploring New Revenue Streams
OpenAI is already diversifying. The company is exploring online advertising, monetizing its text-to-video generator Sora, and developing a personal device with former Apple designer Jony Ive. However, whether these ventures can generate the hundreds of billions needed to match its spending remains uncertain. Altman has indicated that profitability is not an immediate priority, suggesting a long-term vision that may tolerate current losses.
To attract new paying users, OpenAI recently announced it would allow "mature" content in ChatGPT apps, a shift from Altman's August statement that the platform hosted no "sexbots." This move could appeal to adult audiences but also raises questions about content moderation and brand safety.
The European slowdown is particularly concerning given the region's size and its role as a bellwether for tech adoption. If ChatGPT's paid growth cannot rebound there, it may struggle to convince investors that its infrastructure investments will pay off. For now, OpenAI continues to push forward, but the clock is ticking on its ability to turn its AI ambitions into a sustainable business.
